“Ukraine may lose half of its pig population in 2026”
African Swine Fever (ASF) and low farmgate prices may cause Ukraine to lose half its pig population in 2026. That warning was issued by Nikolay Babenko, executive director of the Ukrainian Meat Industry Association.
He said that Ukraine already lost nearly 2 million head of pigs in 2024, a third of its total population as a result of a series of devastating ASF outbreaks.
In 2025, the industry recovered, with the pig population growing from 4 million to 5 million head. However, new ASF outbreaks registered in several regions in January are a cause to renewed concern for the industry.
Farmgate prices for pigs are low
In addition, farmgate prices could also knock a significant portion of pig farmers out of business.
According to various reports, the average farmgate price of pork in Ukraine has recently dropped to 60 hryvnia/kg (US $1.40). In addition to the ASF threat, persistent blackouts are believed to be the key factor pushing farmers to massively slaughter their pigs. And large supply drives prices down.
Babenko said, “In 2026, everything will depend on the price. If the price is unfavourable and ASF outbreaks continue, businesses will continue to suffer losses, and we could lose another half of our livestock.”
Pig farm rebuilding capacities
Babenko added that Ukraine’s pig farmers may decide not to rebuild the capacities that will be lost during 2026 – unlike what happened in 2025. It takes between 50,000 and 60,000 hryvnia (US$ 1,160 to 1,400) per sow to put farms back into operation. Babenko said, “On a national scale, this represents billions of hryvnias being wasted. These resources could be used more rationally during a war than for a permanent business restart.”
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