Rabobank: Iran conflict has indirect impacts on pig industry
While direct impacts of the current Middle East conflict on the pig industry might remain limited, most likely indirect effects will be felt. That was the message agribusiness bank Rabobank communicated in its global pork quarterly.
The division RaboResearch expects ‘second- and third-order effects to ripple through the sector’.
The bank pointed to the longer-term effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and illustrated that with 3 different types of effects.
- Logistics: The bank pointed out that freight rates have gone up, with higher diesel and natural gas prices affecting everyone in the supply chain.
- Production: Rising fuel and feed costs will have an impact on margins for pork producers and slaughterhouses as well.
- Consumer demand: Consumers could become more cautious with their spending, partly due to uncertainty or inflation.
Japan imports pork from elsewhere
In its quarterly outlook, the bank zoomed in on the developments in various continents. Interestingly, the US exports to Japan rose by 21% year-on-year – a result of the outbreak of African Swine Fever in Spain’s wild boar population.
About the Japanese market, the bank wrote, “Pork imports from Spain, one of the key suppliers to Japan, have been suspended since late November 2025. Nevertheless, import volumes from Spain in January 2026 were down only 10.4% year-on-year. This relatively modest decrease reflects continued imports of exempt pork that was processed and packaged on or before the end of October 2025. However, a substantial reduction in Spanish pork imports is expected in the near term, as these inventories are expected to be depleted in the 2nd quarter.”
Brazil also profited from the health problems in Spain; shipments in the 1st quarter reached the highes volumes and revenues ever recorded for that period, the bank wrote (381,000 metric tons). Shipments to Japan rose 60% year-on-year, totalling 43,000 metric tons. Brazil’s exports to the Philippines continue to top the list with 121,000 metric tons.
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