Global pork production in 2026: first growth, then decline
The year 2026 is going to be characterised by “uneven production growth” for the pig industry, with various “unknowns” that might prove to be challenging. Those insights were shared by global agribusiness bank Rabobank.
The latest RaboResearch report “Global Pork Quarterly Q4 2025”, which was published late last week. The bank pointed to several factors that will impact global supply in 2026, including biosecurity, disease pressures, relatively high construction costs and trade restrictions.
Trade policy changes in major countries will continue to reshuffle trade flows in the coming year, the bank wrote. “The focus will be on productivity, cost reduction and cautious expansion.”
Production to rise in first 6 months
Global production is expected to increase in the first half of 2026, driven by growth across major producing countries. RaboResearch expects modest growth in the US, EU, and China in the first 6 months, and steady growth in Brazil. The Latin American giant keeps on breaking export records.
Chenjun Pan is senior analyst animal protein for RaboResearch. In a news release, she explained, “The driving forces for growth vary by region. Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the US, China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China.”
She said that global pork production in the 2nd half of 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, and she said the herd reduction in China and Spain would be responsible for that. She said, “In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”
Trade is expected to remain volatile due to policy changes
The bank also looked back to global pork trade in 2025 and commented that it showed “an uneven performance.” Brazil recorded 12% export growth, while other key exporting countries, such as the US and Canada, saw single digit declines.
The bank expects the trade volatility to stay in 2026. The bank wrote, “Major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting import policies. Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Japan and the Philippines, major importers, still ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns.”
About the export possibilities to China in more detail, the bank wrote: “Uncertainty around the future of EU’s offal exports to China has increased as Brazil asks for improved market access to the Chinese market.” On the basis of data on the first 3 quarters of 2025, the bank wrote, “EU pork exports are expected to weaken in the 4th quarter of 2025 due to the additional tariffs and China’s ample near-term pork supplies following planned herd liquidation.”
Herd health remains a challenge in 2026
Local pig production recovery will be tough difficult in countries like Vietnam and the Philippines as ASF continues to spread.
The bank once again pointed to Spain with its ASF situation. Although ASF has not affected the domestic herd in Spain, the industry faces increased pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease control measures.
Lastly, RaboResearch also pointed to PRRS, which is continuing to weigh on production in the US and Mexico. The bank added about PRRS control: “Efforts to develop new tools to mitigate the effects are slow, with limited results so far. However, vaccine development and regional containment strategies are gaining industry support in some markets.”
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